China's new energy vehicle industry has moved away from its early policy-driven phase, which was dominated by government subsidies, and has entered a market-oriented commercial phase, ushering in a golden period of development.
As one of the important technical products of new energy vehicles, what will be the future development of power batteries, driven by the dual carbon policy of carbon compliance and carbon neutrality?
China's automotive power cell data is a reversal of the norm
According to data from the China Automotive Power Battery Alliance, power battery production in July totaled 47.2GWh, up 172.2% year-on-year and 14.4% sequentially. However, the corresponding installed base was uncharacteristic, with a total installed base of only 24.2GWh, up 114.2% year-on-year, but down 10.5% sequentially.
Specifically, different technology lines of power batteries, the response also varies. Among them, the decline of ternary lithium batteries is particularly obvious, not only production fell 9.4% year-on-year, the installed base was down by as much as 15%.
In contrast, the output of lithium iron phosphate batteries was relatively stable, still able to increase by 33.5%, but the installed base was also down by 7%.
Data surface can be inferred from the 2 points: battery manufacturers production capacity is sufficient, but the car companies installed capacity is not enough; ternary lithium battery market shrinkage, lithium iron phosphate demand has also declined.
BYD tries to reverse its position in the power battery industry
The first reversal in the power battery industry occurred in 2017. This year, Ningde Time won the global first crown with a 17% market share, and the international giants LG and Panasonic were left behind.
In the country, BYD, which had previously been a perennial top seller, was also reduced to second place. But for the time being, the situation is about to change again.
In July, BYD's sales for the month reached an all-time high. With a year-on-year increase of 183.1%, BYD's total sales in July touched 160,000 units, even more than five times the combined total of the three Weixiaoli companies.
It is also because of the existence of this impetus, Fudi battery leap, once again from the lithium iron phosphate battery installed in terms of the volume of vehicles, head-on defeat Ningde Times. What is clear is that the BYD effect is bringing a new breakthrough to the solidified power battery market.
Some time ago BYD Group Executive Vice President and Director of the Automotive Engineering Research Institute, Lian Yubo, said in an interview with CGTN: "BYD respects Tesla, and is also good friends with Musk, and is immediately ready to supply batteries to Tesla as well."
Whether or not the Tesla Shanghai Super Factory will eventually receive supplies of BYD blade batteries, what is certain is that BYD has slowly begun to cut into Ningde Time's cake.
The three cards of Ningde Times
At the World Power Battery Conference, Ningde Times Chairman Zeng Yuqun has said: "The battery is different from oil, the vast majority of battery materials can be reused, and the current recycling rate of Ningde Times nickel-cobalt-manganese has reached 99.3%, and lithium has reached more than 90%."
Although in the view of the people concerned, up to 90% of the recycling rate is not realistic, but to Ningde Times identity, into the field of battery recycling, but also enough to become the industry rule makers.
Ningde Times M3P batteries are a type of lithium manganese iron phosphate battery, and sources close to the matter have indicated that Ningde Times will supply them to Tesla in the fourth quarter of this year and equip them in the Model Y (72kWh battery pack) model.
If its effect can really replace lithium iron phosphate batteries and compete with ternary lithium batteries in terms of energy density, then Ningde Times is strong and bound to make a comeback.
In March this year, Aviata Technology announced the completion of the first round of strategic financing and change of industrial and commercial information, and the launch of the A round of financing. The business information shows that after the completion of the first round of financing, Ningde Times officially became the second largest shareholder of Aviata Technology with a 23.99% shareholding ratio.
Zeng Yuqun, on the other hand, once said at the appearance of Aviata that he would put the best battery technology, on Aviata. And another angle cut, Ningde Times investment in Aviata this operation, perhaps also hidden other thoughts.
Conclusion: The global power battery industry is set for a major reshuffle
"Cost reduction" is an area that almost all manufacturers focus on when developing batteries, and is no less important than energy density.
In terms of industry trends, if a technology route is proven to be too costly, there is bound to be room for other technology routes to develop.
Power batteries are still an industry where new technologies are emerging all the time. Not long ago, Wanxiang One Two Three (the name changed after the acquisition of A123) announced that it had made a major breakthrough in all-solid-state batteries. After years of hibernation since the acquisition, the company has finally come back from the dead in the Chinese market.
On the other hand, BYD has also announced a patent for a new "six-pronged" battery that is claimed to be safer than the "blade battery".
Among the second-tier battery makers, VN Technology has risen to prominence with its soft pack batteries, Tianjin Lixin has seen a bumper crop of cylindrical batteries, Guoxuan High-tech is still in full swing, and Yiwei Li-energy continues to play the Daimler effect.
Many car companies that are not involved in power batteries, such as Tesla, Great Wall, Azera and Volkswagen, are also rumoured to be involved in the production and development of power batteries across borders.
Once one company can break through the impossible triangle of performance, cost and safety at the same time, it will mean a major reshuffle in the global power battery industry.
Part of the content comes from: One sentence review: July power battery: BYD and Ningde Times, there must be a battle; Gingko Finance: power battery thirty years of sinking; new energy era - can Ningde Times really become an era?
Post time: Aug-30-2022