"There is lithium to go everywhere, no lithium inch hard to walk".
This popular stems, although slightly exaggerated, but a word about the degree of popularity of the lithium industry.
What is the logic of the big hit?
Into October, three quarterly forecasts into the intensive release period, all kinds of funds and open a wave of position transfer.
As of October 21, Shanghai and Shenzhen have more than 360 listed companies disclosed, the performance rate of more than 90%. From the industry distribution, photovoltaic, lithium battery materials and other popular track is properly cheerful, some leading enterprises performance is particularly bright.
Ningde Times, for example, is expected to return a net profit of 16.5 billion yuan to 18 billion yuan in the first three quarters, an increase of 112.87% to 132.22% over the same period last year, exceeding last year's full-year level (15.93 billion yuan).
The third quarter net profit attributable to the mother is expected to be between 8.8 billion yuan and 9.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth rate of 169.33%-199.94%. More than the sum of the first two quarters of this year (8.16 billion yuan), daily earnings of about 100 million yuan.
In addition to Ning Wang, Yiwei lithium energy on the same day also out of good news: the first three quarter net profit is expected to 2.437 billion yuan - 2.659 billion yuan, an increase of 10% -20%, the third quarter net profit of 1.082 billion yuan - 1.298 billion yuan, an increase of 50% -80% The third quarter net income of 1.082-1.298 billion yuan, an increase of 50-80 percent.
October 14, lithium leading Ganfeng lithium industry released a performance forecast: the net profit is expected to 14.3 billion yuan - 15.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 478.29% - 518.73%. Among them, the third quarter net profit is expected to increase by more than 5.67 times.
Another leading lithium industry, but also the performance of "explosive": the first three quarters of net profit is expected to 15.2 billion yuan - 16.9 billion yuan, an increase of 2768.96% - 3089.83%, the third quarter net profit is expected to 5 billion yuan -6.5 billion yuan, an increase of 1026.10%-1363.92%.
Full of red eyes and collective revelry, it must be said that 2022 is a big year for the lithium battery industry.
In fact, the secondary market has been foreshadowed. 11 October, lithium stocks quickly pulled up. By the end of the day, the lithium battery index rose more than 2 percent. Among them, billion lithium energy rose 6.16%, Ningde Times rose 5.97%, the market value back to the trillion yuan mark.
Why soaring?
For the performance growth, Ningde Times said that with the rapid development of the new energy industry at home and abroad, the market for power batteries and energy storage continues to grow. The company continues to launch leading product solutions and strengthen market development efforts, coupled with the release of production capacity of the early layout, production and sales volume increased significantly.
EVERLIGHT indicated that, on the one hand, against the background of sharp increase in upstream major material prices, it timely adjusted its product pricing mechanism, and the profitability of each product line was better repaired; secondly, the main business of battery business is developing well, and with the new factory and new production line entering mass production stage, the company's shipment scale is growing rapidly.
Indeed, benefiting from the ultra-high market boom, the new energy vehicle industry chain ushers in a rare period of opportunity.
According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in 2014, China's new energy vehicle sales were only 75,000 units; in 2021, more than 3.5 million units. This year, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) has raised its sales forecast to 6 million vehicles, and said it may further raise it thereafter. By September this year, China's new energy vehicle retail penetration rate reached 31.8 percent, up 11 percentage points from September 2021.
At the same time, the penetration rate of overseas markets is also increasing rapidly. Customs data show that in August this year, China's exports of new energy vehicles reached 83,000 units up 82.3% year-on-year, accounting for 27% of the total exports of cars in the same period, a record high.
As of August 2022, China's new energy vehicle sales have accounted for about 70 percent of the world, becoming a powerful force that absolutely cannot be ignored. Recently the world's top five auto shows Paris Motor Show, BYD Han, Wei brand Coffee 01, Ola Funky Cat and other new products debut, set off a new energy Chinese wind.
There is no doubt that China is already an important wind vane leading the global new energy vehicle industry.
Riding on explosive demand, lithium salt prices, the main raw material for power batteries, have continued to rise since 2021.
October 14, 2022, the domestic battery-grade lithium carbonate price reached 526,000 yuan / ton, hitting a record high, compared to 278,000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year increased by nearly 90 percent. Compared to October 14, 2020, 4.1 million yuan / ton, more soaring nearly 12 times.
Up crazy not only lithium carbonate, October 14, 2020 domestic lithium hydroxide 4.9 million yuan / ton, October 14, 2022 has reached 51.75 million yuan / ton.
According to the data released by the Shanghai Steel Association, on October 18, battery-grade lithium carbonate rose 2,000 yuan / ton, the average price of 53.75 million yuan / ton, industrial grade lithium carbonate rose 2,500 yuan / ton, the average price of 52.3 million yuan / ton, both hit a record high.
All kinds of factors add up, the lithium industry in situ fly together, the practitioners of the company feast, and even industry bigwigs say: the entire new energy vehicle industry, are working for the lithium mine "work".
A time, the lithium industry companies have in turn become the top species of the biological chain.
Zhongtai Capital director Wang Dongwei said, stimulating the lithium ore prices soared there are short-term and long-term two factors.
In the short term, seasonal reasons led to the decline in production of Qinghai Salt Lake, coupled with the impact of the epidemic on transport, lithium resources supply tight. Downstream enterprises at the end of the year to catch up with work, extensive stockpiling, intensifying the supply shortage.
In the long term, lithium prices are rising because of the imbalance between supply and demand, a lithium resource project takes about five years to complete, while downstream demand is increasing rapidly, and the immediate capacity of lithium is not abundant.
It is undeniable that new energy is still a first-class golden track at the moment.
Industry analyst Yu Shengmei said: whether the future growth prospects, or the current high boom, including the scale of the industry, is not compared to any other track. But this does not mean that the new energy market is not cyclical, the industry is not saturated.
New energy vehicle penetration rate approaching 30%, the major battery factories, host plants and have been a major expansion of production. Once the car market growth margin is reduced, the battery production capacity is concentrated release, the potential saturation surplus or let the market instantly change face, and then fall down a chicken feather.
Keystone Capital partner Yang Shengjun said, new energy track in the next few years is still in the climbing period, at the earliest to 2025 may usher in the industry high point. Although it may be difficult to continue to maintain the doubling growth of the past two years, it is still in the fast-growing stage overall.
Lonzhong information lithium iron phosphate industry analyst Wang Juan said: the current layout of various enterprises of lithium iron phosphate is seizing the time to seize the market, but by various reasons, most of the construction progress of the device are delayed situation, at present, the short-term temporary excess capacity will not appear, but with the continuous release of new production capacity, is expected after the next two years, lithium iron phosphate may face excess capacity situation.
In a word, then the fire track also has an imaginary ceiling, the need to be wary of too much, too crude and aggressive, the loss of risk reverence. In the past, from photovoltaic to milk tea, the track is too hot from what is not good.
The lithium industry still has a golden period, but it is not far from the winter reshuffle period. Practitioners can not tolerate much excessive intoxication, not to mention the possibility of lying down to win, the only thing is to practice quality internal work, technology to create work, solid industrial fundamentals, comprehensive anti-risk force, it is possible to continue to grow steadily, in the next reshuffle through the winter.
The better the situation, the more we must walk on thin ice, the more alarm bells ringing. A bang, I wonder how many dreamers can wake up?
Post time: Oct-25-2022